Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt (2024)

Is This A Goldilocks Pullback In Metals?

We are starting to see more of a pullback in metals, but the question, of course, is how deep will it take us? And, to be honest, in both GLD and silver, we have the minimum number of waves in place to consider a correction is complete. Yet, GDX still seems as though there is still more potential pullback to come. So, let’s discuss these.Clearly, the pivot we outlined earlier this week has held, thus far. And, while I had initially wanted a better i-ii in silver, we MAY have to accept the smaller degree wave ii as shown on the 144-minute chart as being already in place.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Metals Quick Update - Market Analysis for May 20th, 2024

Folks, if anyone has been following me over the last year, not only would you have positions in metals and miners, but I even announced months ago when I was adding LEAPS in SLV and GDX. Feel free to look at the attached GLD chart from the start of this year to understand what I have been expecting. And, I made it quite clear that I am not selling any of those positions until I see this rally completing. So, anyone who has been following us has been doing VERY well.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Silver Breaking Out?

Before I call it a night, I went back to align the counts on SLV and SI due to the potential move through the pivot noted on the 144-minute chart. Please do not take the timing as gospel, as this can happen a LOT faster than this is showing here, especially if we follow the action we saw in 2010-2011. The point of the chart is to show you that if we hold the micro support of the pivot this week then it gives you an idea as to how we are just starting the 3rd wave, and all pullbacks will likely be MUCH smaller as 4th waves from now on.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

What Kind Of Drop Will We Now See In Metals?

For those that have followed me through the years in metals, you would know we called the top in gold in 2011 within $6 of the high, we called the bottom in gold as it was happening a little over 4 years later, and we have been through both a major bear market and now a major bull market together. And, during that time, you have likely seen me lean towards the bearish counts when we were in the bear market, and then the bullish counts when we are in the bull market.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is This Really As Bullish As It “Feels?”

Today brought me back to feelings of late 2021 and 2019. Both those times, I was looking for a market top and pullback, and both those times the market extended beyond my ideal topping target. Clearly, the one I was expecting as we moved into 2020 was of a larger degree. But, in both those instances, the market pushed beyond my primary expectations before it eventually followed through with the respective pullbacks. And, I am getting the same “feeling” today.So, I am going to present, again, my view as to where I think we are in the SPX, and also present some points on IWM and EEM as well.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sideways For Three Days

Pretty much, the title says it all. Yet, in my opinion, we are still involved in a topping structure. And, the ES is suggesting that this topping structure can still push higher one more time.For those that have been in our chat/trading room, you would be familiar with my 5-minute ES chart. As you can see, we recently topped in the box on the left, came down to the support box noted, and we now seem to be setting up for one more push higher.If you also remember, I noted last week that the structure of wave 5 really counted best as an ending diagonal.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Playing Around Near The Highs

While I would love to provide you all with certainty in the markets, sadly, certainty in most areas of life simply does not exist. So, we resolve ourselves to playing this “game” in the stock market with probabilities.Over the last several weeks, our analysis has suggested that the SPX is in a b-wave rally. And, yes, b-waves can make higher highs. In fact, the most glaring and extreme b-wave high I have EVER seen was the high we struck in 2020. And, truth be told, we have a similar set up currently , but not with the same potential extreme high b-wave.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Are We Topping?

As we came into this week, the expectation for the SPX was for higher before this [c] wave of what we are counting as a b-wave corrective rally completed. And, as I write this update, I am seeing us in the final squiggles of the 5th wave of that [c] wave.I have included the 5-minute ES chart in this update so you can see that I think we still may be seeing one more iv-v before this 5th wave of the [c] wave completes. And, more often than not, we see wave iv overlap wave i in this structure, as this 5th wave seems to be taking shape as an ending diagonal.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Just A Micro Mess

I wish I had some wonderful insight to provide you this evening. Alas, the market is not being terribly compliant with allowing me to do that.Starting with the GDX 8-minute chart, we are seeing a lot of overlap, which still leaves both potentials on the chart. Until we take out the 35 region, we still leave the door open for a deeper wave [ii], as presented by the blue count. And, the reason it is hard to distinguish it from the green count is because the green count is a leading diagonal, with its own issues of overlap. But, over 35, then I have to adopt the green count.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

IWM Hit The Target

With IWM hitting its target on the 3-minute chart, it now places me on high alert. So, I want to post something I sent out in an alert today:“I want to remind everyone that the SPX and IWM are in two difference counts. We are tracking the SPX as a b-wave, and the structure is supportive of that count. And, that applies even if we do make a higher high - remember the b-wave which topped right before Covid!?!?As far as the IWM, that cannot make a higher high or it invalidates the wave count we are tracking there. And, since it is lagging, it is still well within expectations for this 2nd wave bounce.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Time To Be On Alert

Over the weekend, I provided you with a [c] wave structure on the 3-minute IWM chart which suggested that we still need a 4-5 before that potentially completes. With the market pushing higher today, it makes me consider that the 4th wave has potentially completed, even though we did not see the standard overlap in waves 4 and 1 within a diagonals.But, I am still going to leave the door open for that 4-5 as long as we do not reach the minimum target we normally see for a 5th wave in an ending diagonal, which is the bottom of the box on the 3-minute chart, at the 1.618 extension.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Sentiment Speaks: The End Of Objectivity In Market Analysis And Potentially The Bull Run Too

The market rallied over 1% on Friday on a much worse than expected jobs report. And, I had a financial television show on in the background after the close, and I heard the host state the following afterthe rally made no sense to him:“People ask me when it comes to Wall Street, are they in their own little world, their own little cocoon, that they see all these college protests, that they see all these other worries, and a former President on trial right now . . .”As you can see, he and his followers were quite confused by the 1%+ rally on Friday.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Still Looking For Another Rally

As Mike has been outlining, the smaller degree structure is a bit unclear. And, that is often typical of b-wave or corrective structures. In fact, I can probably outline 4/5 different ways to count the smaller degree structure outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.Yet, all my analysis can be summed up by the following statement: As long as the market continues to hold the lower support box on the 5-minute chart, I am going to continue to look higher to test the resistance box overhead.In the meantime, as least so far, the rally is starting to take shape as a potential [c] wave rally. So, for now, I am still going to look higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Still No Clear Evidence Of A Bottom In Metals

While we are certainly in the region from which I can reasonably expect a bottom to be struck, I still have no clear indications that a bottom has indeed been struck. I am seeking a clear 5-wave rally off a low, and none has become evident just yet.Meanwhile, as I have noted in the alerts I posted in the trading room over the last day or so, GLD is still holding over its 208 region support, which has me on alert for a 5-wave rally to begin.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Ready To Start The Next Rally In Metals?

As of tonight, I would say that not only do we have enough waves in place to consider a bottom to having been struck in this recent pullback in metals, but we even have an argument for the start of the next rally in place. Yet, I have to admit it is not the clearest of 5 waves up, and it is really of a very small wave degree, so much so that I cannot say that I am prepared to view this as a high probability just yet.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Nighttime Update - Market Analysis for Apr 18th, 2024

The market is now extending a bit further than I expected at the close. While we have no confirmation that a bottom has been struck, there is another 5-wave extension I have noted on the attached ES chart. But, I want to remind you that this is not unusual when an ending diagonal completes. While the initial decline was slow to develop, we are certainly making up for lost time of late. And, I still think this is just the start. I think we will likely see even bigger fireworks in May and maybe into June once we do see a corrective bounce before likely continuing lower in the coming weeks and months.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Looking For A Near Term Bottom

With the market break-down below 5091SPX, I have noted my preference for viewing the top as having been struck, which now makes this decline an a-wave. And, I have highlighted the expected support for where I believe the a-wave can bottom on the 5-minute SPX chart, the top of which we are hitting right now.Overall, I do not expect that we will break down below 4946SPX in this initial decline. Of course, if I am wrong, then we may see a much larger decline than I currently expect. But, for now, there are many indications that suggest that we should be bottoming in the support box outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Mixed Signals In Metals

The different charts are giving me different signals. So, let me review what I am seeing.First, GLD may have a small 5-wave move off the low, which is better seen in the gold futures. If that is the case, and we get another extension higher, then I have to assume it is simply an extension in wave iii, and not the start to wave v of [3]. Second, GDX has enough waves in place to consider all of its wave [ii] as completed. Yet, the move off the low is overlapping. Of course, it could be starting its next rally as a leading diagonal, but that is not reliable enough for me to turn uber-bullish just yet.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Is The Top In Place?

Yesterday, I outlined that a downside follow-through below 5056SPX would get me to adjust my wave count and view the top as being in place as my primary count. And, when you look at the 60-minute chart, you will see that is exactly where I now stand.Clearly, I am still going to want to see a break down below 4946SPX to make that a much higher probability, but I have seen enough thus far to view it as more likely than not that the top is now in place, and my wave structure is being presented accordingly. Now, there are a few issues I addressed in alerts today, which I want to repost in my afternoon report.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Risks Are Rising - Market Analysis for Apr 15th, 2024

Today, the market has broken below the 5091SPX support level we have been outlining for some time. And, that provides us with a strong warning that we may have struck a major market top of many wave degrees. For the last several months, I have been urging you to be developing a plan to put into action as the market provides us indications that a major market top is being struck. And, we have now seen our first indication that you should be putting that plan into action. Should the market continue below 5056SPX, then I will likely turn my primary count into the SPX having topped, as that would then break down below the wave ii as shown.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Nothing Broken . . . Yet - Market Analysis for Apr 11th, 2024

I know it may sound like a broken record already, but we still reside over 5091SPX, so the bulls still have a path to 5300+.Yet, I do want to point out that we have broken down below the uptrend channels outlined on the daily SPX chart, and the MACD has begun to decline. However, the MACD on the 60-minute chart is now in the support zone within this rally, and has turned up today. But, due to the nature of the last segment of this decline, I cannot be sure we have struck a bottom since the structure of the decline is not clearly indicative of a completed 5-wave c-wave structure.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

No Room Left - Market Analysis for Apr 10th, 2024

Yes, there really is no room left on the upside before the breakout in GDX and silver begin in earnest. But, as long as we remain below this week’s high, there still remains potential for more of a pullback.In silver, that would be wave 2 of wave [iii]. In GDX, I am slightly changing my count and now viewing the pullback as wave [ii] within wave iii of [3] of 3. Alternatively, I would view it as wave ii, if the pullback turns out to be a bit deeper.The main point is that the next time we take out this week’s high will likely suggest we are in the heart of the 3rd wave in both GDX and silver.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Apr 10th, 2024

The set up the market left us with yesterday has clearly not followed through to the upside. However, as you can tell from my 60-minute chart, caution has been warranted for some time now. While I have outlined the potential for the IWM to have already topped, I am still not yet convinced the SPX has done so. Remember, I need to see a CLEAR and sustained break of 5091SPX to really begin that process. Moreover, should the IWM complete 5 waves to the downside, as outlined on the 60-minute chart, that would be a VERY bearish indication for the rest of 2024, after we see a 2nd wave bounce.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Still Looking Up – For Now

While the market made a valiant attempt at breaking out through 5220SPX this morning, alas, it only was able to muster a spike and reversal at that resistance region. This led to the break down below 5197SPX which I outlined last night would point us down towards the 5160SPX region. At this point in time, it looks like the deeper b-wave is taking shape. But, it still leaves us with the same general perspective: As long as remain over 5146SPX, then I am still going to be looking up towards the prior highs to complete the [a] wave of wave v of 5.As an aside, this is one of the reasons that diagonals are treacherous trading environments.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

b-Wave Consolidation - Market Analysis for Apr 8th, 2024

From the looks of the current action, it would seem the market is simply engaged in an ongoing b-wave consolidation.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

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