Market Update with Avi Gilburt (2024)

Market Breaks Upper Support But Still Awaiting On Five Down

After trading in a very tight range over the past several days we finally saw the market break over the 5/16 high completing the micro pattern only to be followed by a sharp intraday reversal.This reversal broke under the micro support level that we had been laying out over the past several days giving us a very early signal that we may have put in a larger degree top. Now with that being said we still need to see a full five down off of the highs, which we don't have just yet, and a break of the lower support levels to give us further confirmation that a top has indeed been struck.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Is This A Goldilocks Pullback In Metals?

We are starting to see more of a pullback in metals, but the question, of course, is how deep will it take us? And, to be honest, in both GLD and silver, we have the minimum number of waves in place to consider a correction is complete. Yet, GDX still seems as though there is still more potential pullback to come. So, let’s discuss these.Clearly, the pivot we outlined earlier this week has held, thus far. And, while I had initially wanted a better i-ii in silver, we MAY have to accept the smaller degree wave ii as shown on the 144-minute chart as being already in place.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Moves Lower But Is Still Over Support

Today we saw the market open flat and stay flat most of the day. In the afternoon session, we saw a fairly sharp drop after the FMOC minutes were released but we still managed to hold over support. So with the hold of support and unit that support breaks, we still do not have confirmation that we have put in a top just yet.So while I am still looking for a top in this region the analysis itself still remains for the most part unchanged as we await for support to break to give us that initial confirmation that we have indeed put in a top.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Market Still In A Holding Pattern

Today the market opened flat and stayed flat into the afternoon session. With that flat market, there is still not too much I can add to the analysis other than what has already been said over the past few days.As I noted this yesterday as long as we are over the 5269 level then we still can see this push to another higher high to finish off the wave v of 5 fo (c) of larger wave b. The micro price action over the past several days is also not terribly clear and the move-up yesterday did not give us a clean break of the previous high cleanly satisfying the wave v of 5. Furthermore, today's action is equally sloppy.

by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Market Still Hovering Over Support

Today the market opened flat traded a bit higher into the afternoon session and is now trading flat once again but still over upper micro support. So with that there really is not too much I can add to the analysis other than what has already been said over the past couple of days.As I noted this morning as long as we are over the 5269 level then we still can see this push to another higher high to finish off the wave v of 5 fo (c) of larger wave b.

by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Metals Quick Update - Market Analysis for May 20th, 2024

Folks, if anyone has been following me over the last year, not only would you have positions in metals and miners, but I even announced months ago when I was adding LEAPS in SLV and GDX. Feel free to look at the attached GLD chart from the start of this year to understand what I have been expecting. And, I made it quite clear that I am not selling any of those positions until I see this rally completing. So, anyone who has been following us has been doing VERY well.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Silver Breaking Out?

Before I call it a night, I went back to align the counts on SLV and SI due to the potential move through the pivot noted on the 144-minute chart. Please do not take the timing as gospel, as this can happen a LOT faster than this is showing here, especially if we follow the action we saw in 2010-2011. The point of the chart is to show you that if we hold the micro support of the pivot this week then it gives you an idea as to how we are just starting the 3rd wave, and all pullbacks will likely be MUCH smaller as 4th waves from now on.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

What Kind Of Drop Will We Now See In Metals?

For those that have followed me through the years in metals, you would know we called the top in gold in 2011 within $6 of the high, we called the bottom in gold as it was happening a little over 4 years later, and we have been through both a major bear market and now a major bull market together. And, during that time, you have likely seen me lean towards the bearish counts when we were in the bear market, and then the bullish counts when we are in the bull market.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is This Really As Bullish As It “Feels?”

Today brought me back to feelings of late 2021 and 2019. Both those times, I was looking for a market top and pullback, and both those times the market extended beyond my ideal topping target. Clearly, the one I was expecting as we moved into 2020 was of a larger degree. But, in both those instances, the market pushed beyond my primary expectations before it eventually followed through with the respective pullbacks. And, I am getting the same “feeling” today.So, I am going to present, again, my view as to where I think we are in the SPX, and also present some points on IWM and EEM as well.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sideways For Three Days

Pretty much, the title says it all. Yet, in my opinion, we are still involved in a topping structure. And, the ES is suggesting that this topping structure can still push higher one more time.For those that have been in our chat/trading room, you would be familiar with my 5-minute ES chart. As you can see, we recently topped in the box on the left, came down to the support box noted, and we now seem to be setting up for one more push higher.If you also remember, I noted last week that the structure of wave 5 really counted best as an ending diagonal.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

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